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Global warming could displace 110,000 on OC coast, report says
March 11th, 2009, 5:29 pm · 36 Comments · posted by Pat Brennan, science, environment editor
Sea level rise driven by global warming could flood parts of the California coast in coming decades, with Orange County’s among the most vulnerable in the state, a new state-commissioned report says. 
The report by an independent Oakland research group, the Pacific Institute, says nearly half a million people statewide — and 110,000 in Orange County — could be at risk by the year 2100 under some climate change scenarios. In Orange County, that means a 55 percent increase over those already known to be at risk for a 100-year flood. (Potential Newport Beach flood zones shown in map, courtesy Pacific Institute. See maps in report.)
The replacement value of buildings and other structures in Orange County that would be affected: an estimated $17 billion, most of it residential.
“The level of risk is going to increase in the future,” said Matthew Heberger, the lead author of the report. “And there are folks already in the flood plain who are going to experience increased risk. It will reach higher and reach further inland in some cases.”
The $335,000 study, requested by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s climate action team and paid for by Caltrans, the state Energy Commission and the Ocean Protection Council, is based on scientific estimates from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the U.S. Geological Survey on coastal effects from rising sea levels. Those, in turn, were based on work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international team of climate scientists.
It is one of a series of studies commissioned by the state to examine potential effects of climate change in California, said BreAnda Northcutt, spokeswoman for the California Environmental Protection Agency.
“I think this will inform policy decisions,” she said. “The strategy is to look at different sectors of the economy — agriculture, energy, water supply, forestry, parks, transportation. It helps the climate action team focus priorities for informed policy.”
The study says a rise in sea level of four to five feet would place an additional 220,000 people statewide at risk in a 100-year flood event (which has a one percent chance of occurring in any given year) — from 260,000 estimated to be at risk in 2000 to 480,000.
Nearly a quarter of those would be in Orange County, the study says, although Los Angeles, Monterey, San Mateo, Sonoma and Ventura counties would have significant populations at risk as well.
In all, some $100 billion in buildings would be placed at risk along the California coast. The flooding could affect roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities and railroads. Wetlands and natural ecosystems also could be destroyed by changes in sea level.
Potential costs in Orange County, part of the estimated $17 billion total, include $14 billion in residential costs, $2.3 billion for commercial facilities, $610 million for industrial facilities, and $110 million each for educational and religious facilities.
The monetary estimates are only for replacement value, and do not include land costs, Heberger said; actual market costs could be several times higher.
Even places that are not directly subject to flooding could suffer erosion because of sea level rise, he said, such as coastal bluffs and dunes.
And sea level rise in Northern California could have troubling effects in the south. Increased salinity in the California delta, for example, could reduce supplies of drinking water piped to Southern California, he said.
The report draws a distinction between mitigation measures to reduce the effects of global warming, such as reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and “adaptations” to coming changes along the coast — changes that will be inevitable, even if we reduced greenhouse gas emissions to zero tomorrow.
Potential adaptations include limiting development along the coast, retreating entirely from some coastal areas, or armoring the coast with breakwaters, seawalls and the like.
California is already moving to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But a variety of stakeholders, including those involved in everything from shipping, boating and recreation to habitat conservation, must come together, Heberger said, to make difficult choices about what to preserve along the coast as sea levels rise.
“The choices we make in the next few years are going to have a big bearing on whether this plays itself out or not, both in terms of mitigation — greenhouse gas reduction — and in terms of adaptation,” he said.
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More doom and gloom and mass hysteria over junk science.
So much for Lido Island.
Pat;
Do you realize the waning # of sheeple that actually believe the tripe that the algor crowd spews? It ain’t warming its cooling. If it is warming there’s not a damn thing anyone can do about it. How about the fact that due to the messiah’s constant blithering the global economy is now a slow motion train wreck, resulting in the most massive reduction in fossil fuel use in history. How about a calculation of the reduction that’s actually happening compared to the reduction that algor crowd claims we needed? I bet you the reductions that are actually happening are larger than algors wildest dreams, & with 3 years 10 months left of total presidential ineptness left Ill be surprised if we reach the 2006 level of carbon fuel usage in the foreseeable future.
So the temperatures, the climate are all suppose to stay constant from now on? Even though they have been going from ice age to ice free for the last 30 million years or so?
“State Commissioned Report”. Want to bet that Barbara Boxer had something to do with it?
The $335,000 study, requested by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger no wonder this state is bankrupt if we are wasting money like this. It is time to send the liberals packing along with there girly boy leader.
Do you think the rich Republican party donors in this flood zone will stop denying global warming once their house is gone?
in 90 years my kids will have beachfront property in westminister.
LOL, the irony.
Not too worried about it or global warming. Think about it. We had half of North America covered by a glacier even before Industrial revolution, cars, or sheep farting or cows burping. The real concern is real pollution, and managing our resources (eg. not overfishing, etc). The whole global warming, o… excuse me, the whole “global climate” change is political in nature and its pushing for world governance.
That’s really nice to hear that California is already moving to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Every one need to take active part in protecting our environment….
It is a total scam. There is no global warming. Anyone with a science background knows it. I don’t understand why junk like this keeps getting published.
global warning? next thing you’re gonna tell me is that al gore invented the internet. please stop this nonsense. the ocregister.com is almost like reading cnn.com.
Year 2100??? 91 years from now…… 3.64 generations from now….. I think them boys by then would put their places on stilts like down at the Gulf area………
“could be at risk by the year 2100 under some climate change scenarios. ”
“The $335,000 study, requested by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s climate action team and paid for by Caltrans, the state Energy Commission and the Ocean Protection Council, is based on scientific estimates…”
“changes that will be inevitable, even if we reduced greenhouse gas emissions to zero tomorrow.”
‘Those, in turn, were based on work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international team of climate scientists”
You have got to be kidding. Only 30% of the signees of the IPCC are scientists and almost 50% of those have been asked to be removed from the list.
Here’s a quote from the Pacific Institutes web site, “The Pacific Institute is a nonpartisan research institute that works to advance environmental protection, economic development, and social equity.” Hmmm, I wonder which way they lean and why our joke for a govenor had them do the study. It could have been written before spending $350,000.
Is this considered Austrian Pork?
It won’t matter. By 2100 the state is going to look like tijuanna. So this will be Aztlan’s problem.
B. S.
Global warming is junk science. Also, now that the economy is tanking and people won’t be buying and throwing away as many things or driving as much it looks like if there were a problem it will be corrected because of the change in peoples habits. Watch the movie Walle which had a lot of insights into the waste created by fat lazy Americans. Watch the movie strictly to view the social commentary. Thank God that the economy does cycle and good ones don’t last forever. If they did, then our planet would be ruined according to Walle and Al Gore. Too bad Al Gore didn’t spend more time studying about our economy and finding a solution to what is happening now.
BTW, has anyone else heard that the Prius is more polluting because the batteries take a lot of energy to produce and they are highly polluting to dispose of? Anyone catch the Pius episode of South Park where everyone starts driving Priuses and then thinks they are better than everyone else and their smugness nearly destroys the environment?
I wonder how much tax payer money was paid for this “independent” report. After all, a good investment for government: pay a lot for a report that can be used to raise taxes and fees to save everybody.
The one thing I see left out is the effect of a planet colliding with Earth. Clearly that is man-kinds doing too!
follow the money! from movies, books, government grants, college and university grants, carbon trading, taxes, and so on and so forth.
There is a lot of money being made by many people and the government by keeping this myth alive.
just follow the money.
someday the American people, not algore, will be the laughing stocks, because they bought in to this.
335K from Caltrans money for this “study?” Spend it on something relevant for today and not some Al Gore horror movie sequel.
Fix the damn potholes!
I KNOW WHAT WE CAN DO!!! Lets start a “Save the Future Generations Trust Fund”. We’ll raise everyone’s taxes now, put the money into a trust fund (protected by the state legislature of course). Then in 91 years that generation can open it up and see how much (or how many i.o.u.’s) are in there.
“Under some climate change scenarios!!!!!!!” What a crock!!!!!!! Under some scenarios people were investing and going to be rich. Under one scenario I win the lottery and laugh all the way to my death bed.
Look at ther mission statement of the Pacific Institute:
“The Pacific Institute works to create a healthier planet and sustainable communities. We conduct interdisciplinary research and partner with stakeholders to produce solutions that advance environmental protection, economic development, and social equity—in California, nationally, and internationally.”
Sure glad Governator Green got what he paid for.
…because world renowned institutes like Scripps and organizations like the USGS use junk science. Wow.
nefff: If you want to pretend you know jack about natural sciences at least take an intro class first. Same goes for economics. Christ, you can’t even keep your psychobabble from contradicting itself.
If CO2 is such a threat, why aren’t we going nuclear full speed ahead at least until another plentiful and reliable energy source is discovered?
How come the wastes that come from manufacturing solar PV panels that last forever are almost never publicized?
http://www.ecolo.org/documents/documents_in_english/Myths&factsLloydMielke01.htm
Why do many of the politicians that promote the CO2 causes warming/climate change theory continue to be the biggest hydrocarbon users?
What good will carbon taxes do other than take money from workers just to put it in the hands of power grabbers that live like kings in large energy guzzling homes using hydrocarbon fuels?
Manmade global warming is a farce. Do the research.
http://delicious.com/search?p=global+warming&u=heydigital&chk=&context=userposts&fr=del_icio_us&lc=0
Interesting that the entire report is based on the assumption that the seas will rise 4-5 feet, without any evidence that the assumption is a likely one. Why not pick 20 feet? Anyone can write a report of some disasterous result if an unlikely scenario is “assumed” to occur. One would think the Register’s editorial position that global warming is a farce would at least allow for some balance in the news section. Or does selling papers trump investigative reporting and critical thinking?
Now if perhaps somewhere along the line in human civilization we learned how to build waterworks…
‘City sea level rising 1.2 mm yearly’
26 Oct 2007, 0610 hrs IST, Sunil Nair, TNN
“MUMBAI: A new study on the global effects of climate change has established that net sea level rise along the Arabian Sea coast has been 1-2 mm per year over the past several decades, with Mumbai indicating a rise of roughly one-tenth of a metre over the last 100 years.”
That is about 4 inches over the last century. You can bet they have trouble getting funding now, since their data doesn’t lie and terrorize.
Wana stop Global Warming
1) Stop Overpopulation
2) Get rid of the stupid worthless politicans spewing hot air and gas!
California is not the only one in trouble. Consider Florida and the entire East Coast..
I never expected to see such a pathetic grasp of science demonstrated by so many people in such a rich area of Calfornia. If you screeching fools actually think that we can continue to spew unlimited gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere for an unlimited period of time without any significant impact, then I pity your kids.
Very interesting- up here in northern California they are using this same BS report to put through the peripheral canal…… as part of a scam by the Gov’ to suck the Delta dry so he can resell the water at greatly inflated rates- up here they are pitting the farmers against the environmentalists using this same (erroneous) Pacific Institutes’ lie.
It really does not matter whether global warming is real or not. Fossil fuels supplies are not inexhaustible. At some point, especially if Americans are interested in retaining their sovereignity, we must learn to use sustainable and renewable resources. Outside of nuclear fission to date the only way to convert elemental energy into usable energy is by breaking the carbon bonds by combining carbon with oxygen. As the carbon dioxide content, which lays close to the ground, keeps increasing oxygen will become more scarce. Oxygen is required to think – perhaps that is the reason why most people just accept what their favorite television anchors tells them instead of doing research and actually thinking about reality.
Thank you Mr. Brennan for at least attempting to enlighten your readers about the important work being done by our state government to prepare for a highly probable scenario — regardless of the ostrich mentality of the vast majority of the responders above! Fortunately, it doesn’t really matter what these folks believe (or don’t). Our government officials know the seriousness of the threat and are enacting into law the kinds of policies needed to give us a good shot at reigning-in our GHG emissions within the timeframe cited as critical by the vast majority of climate scientists — while simultaneously bolstering our economy and improving the quality of life.
We’ve got to be united to save earth! Earth Hour is practiced at large scale in all developed and developing countries but there has been more publicity and awareness this year, as well as participation from large corporations like http://www.commit21.com/ which is a good sign – that there is still hope and that people still care!
Let’s all do this, no matter where you are! Saturday, 28 March 2009. Lights off from 8.30pm to 9.30pm!