The supplier of much of state’s water says it will initially provide just 15 percent of what farms and cities need for the coming year, far less than its initial outlay last year and the second lowest in state history.

The announcement by the Department of Water Resources could raise the likelihood of water rationing this summer, or even sooner – especially if California experiences another dry winter.

The reasons for the reduced amount of water the agency will deliver to the State Water Project include low reservoir levels and drought, as well as court-ordered reductions in pumping from the California delta to protect an threatened species of fish.

Click to see California reservoir capacities.

Rationing “is a lot more likely than it was a year ago,” said Jeff Kightlinger, general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the region’s water wholesaler. “I’d say something in the range of 50-50.”

Well aware of the possibility of tightened water supplies, cities and water agencies in Orange County have been urging consumers to conserve, and created a variety of programs meant to encourage use of recycled water.

Water rationing – mandatory reductions in use – would normally be expected to come in summer, after the wet season. Healthy rains and snow pack in the Sierra could even stave rationing off.

But Kightlinger said it could also come much earlier.

“We’re going to be taking it up with our board as early as November,” he said. Some board members, he said, are pushing for cuts in regional water allocations by Jan. 1, which could bring rationing soon after.

The agency is trying to arrange for more supply from the Colorado River and working with California farmers to try to reduce water needed for crops, he said.

Water stored in reserve is down by about 1/3, he said, and the agency feels it is being drawn down too quickly.

The Department of Water Resources usually announces its initial water outlay at the end of November, but is making the announcement early this year to help water agencies prepare for possibly tighter supplies.

The outlay will likely be raised as the year progresses, although how much won’t be known until the wet season is over and its effect on supply can be gauged.

The lowest initial allocation ever was 10 percent in 1993, said department spokesman Ted Thomas. But that was increased to 100 percent during the course of the year as conditions improved.

Last year, the initial outlay was 25 percent, and was eventually increased to 35 percent.
Those levels highlight the seriousness of the drop in water supplies, Thomas said; in a normal year, the initial allocation is about 60 to 65 percent.

Even without efforts to protect the threatened fish, called the delta smelt, the initial allocation would have been low this year. Without the court-ordered delta pumping restrictions, the initial allocation would have been only five percent higher, he said.

The Orange County Water District, which does not deliver water directly to consumers but controls the county’s deep aquifer, is encouraging member agencies to conserve water and might have to cut the amount that can be pumped from the aquifer next year, said general manager Mike Markus.

That would prompt the agencies that rely on the aquifer to buy more imported water.
The Municipal Water District of Orange County, which passes imported water from the region’s wholesaler, the Metropolitan Water District, to water agencies, has increased water conservation efforts and met with cities and area water districts to plan for low supplies.

Some of the district’s water-saving efforts include conducting commercial and industrial water-use audits and encouraging homeowners to use smart timer irrigation systems.
The agency also has used financial incentives from Metropolitan to increase the use of recycled water in city parks and medians and around public buildings.

“The theory was, if we are going to be asking residents to cut back, the public sector needs to be doing a good job of water conservation,” said Karl Seckel, assistant general manager at the Municipal Water District.

Metropolitan would not impose rationing directly. Instead, the agency would reduce the amount of water available to water districts and other agencies downstream.

Those agencies would then make their own decisions on where, and when, to impose rationing.